The Money

The price gap

The Central Bank sells dollars at a price it sets itself, and the market price of a dollar is usually higher. Anyone who got dollars at the official price could sell them for more. This page measures what that gap was worth, month by month since 2003. It is not a finding that any particular bank or person made that money. It is the value of the gap, which went to whoever got the dollars: the bank, its customer, or both.

$47.4bn

value of the gap at the market price, from October 2003 to August 2026

Tier B

$17.4bn

of which from 2003 to 2022

Tier B

$30.0bn

and from January 2023, including about $21.7 billion on the dollars sent outside the daily sale

Tier B

The gap between the two prices widened after 2022

Dinars per dollar: the market price and the price paid to the Central Bank, monthly, from October 2003 to August 2026. The dashed lines mark the devaluation of the dinar (December 2020), its revaluation (February 2023), the barring of 14 banks by the Central Bank (July 2023) and the measure against Al-Huda Bank (January 2024).

Market pricePrice paid to the Central Bank, including its commission

Source: Central Bank of Iraq (market tables and statistical bulletins); Central Statistical Organization (monthly average selling price at Baghdad exchange offices)Tier A

The value of the price gap, year by year

In billions of US dollars, valued at the market price

Source: Our calculation from Central Bank sales and official market pricesTier B

How we calculated it

For each month we multiplied the Central Bank's dollar sales by the difference between the average market price and the price paid to the bank. We then divided by the market price, which gives the result in dollars. The price paid includes the Central Bank's commission and is taken from its own records.

The market prices are official for every month up to July 2026. They come from the Central Bank's own tables and from the official monthly average selling price at Baghdad exchange offices, published by the Central Statistical Organization. Only August 2026 relies on prices reported in the press. Months in which the market price was below the official price (between 2004 and 2009) count as zero.

We show the figure on two bases. The first values the gap at the market price ($47.4 billion). It is the more conservative figure, and we use it as the headline. The second measures the gap as a premium over the price paid ($52.6 billion). The premium is the amount by which the market price was above the price paid, as a percentage. The monthly series adds up to slightly less than the annual total, because letters of credit for 2013 and 2014 are published only by year.

How to read the figures after 2023

The figure grew after 2023 for two reasons. Sales rose to between $56 billion and $80 billion a year, from $46.8 billion in 2022, and the market's average premium rose to between 10% and 15%, from between 0.3% and 7.3% in the earlier years. Since February 2023 transfers have gone through a platform that checks documents in advance, so the high market price largely reflects demand that was shut out of the official channel. The figure after 2023 is therefore the value of a subsidy at the official price to whoever had access. It cannot be compared with the gap from 2012 to 2015. In those years, according to the reasons the Central Bank's committee wrote down and statements by members of parliament's finance committee, part of the dollars were obtained with duplicate or invalid invoices. It is not an estimate of loss. We do not add the two periods into a single figure of loss.

Year by year

In billions of US dollars

Year	Sales	Average premium	Gap at market value	Gap over price paid	Months at official prices
2003	0.3		0.00	0.00	3/3
2004	6.1	0.3%	0.02	0.02	12/12
2005	9.6	0.3%	0.03	0.03	12/12
2006	11.2	0.6%	0.06	0.06	12/12
2007	16.0	1.0%	0.16	0.16	12/12
2008	25.9	0.8%	0.21	0.21	12/12
2009	34.0	1.0%	0.34	0.35	12/12
2010	36.2	1.1%	0.40	0.41	12/12
2011	39.8	1.9%	0.72	0.74	12/12
2012	48.6	4.4%	2.05	2.15	12/12
2013	53.2	4.3%	2.20	2.31	12/12
2014	51.7	2.3%	1.13	1.15	12/12
2015	44.3	5.0%	2.05	2.19	12/12
2016	33.5	7.3%	2.26	2.43	12/12
2017	42.2	5.7%	2.28	2.42	12/12
2018	47.1	1.6%	0.73	0.75	12/12
2019	51.1	0.5%	0.27	0.27	12/12
2020	44.1	3.4%	1.44	1.50	12/12
2021	37.1	1.2%	0.42	0.43	12/12
2022	46.8	1.3%	0.60	0.61	12/12
2023	56.1	15.4%	7.45	8.67	12/12
2024	77.7	14.7%	9.94	11.41	12/12
2025	80.4	10.4%	7.51	8.34	12/12
2026	35.3	17.0%	5.14	6.02	7/8

Source: Our calculation from Central Bank and Central Statistical Organization figuresTier B

Download:margin_annual.csv .xlsxmargin_monthly.csv .xlsxmarket_rate_monthly.csv .xlsx

The value of the gap on the dollars each named bank bought is shown in the Ledger and on each bank's page.